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Dealing with ecological fallacy in preparations for influenza pandemics:
Use of a flexible environment for adaptation of simulations to household
structures in local contexts
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Toomas Timpka
Magnus Morin
Johan Jenvald
Elin Gursky
Henrik Eriksson
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Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza
pandemic is a global public health priority. The aim of this study is to
examine effects on simulation outcomes caused by variations in local
socio-demographic data. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model
of a virtual city as a baseline and employed an ontology-modeling tool
to construct alternative population distributions and household
structures. We found that adjustment for the case when single parents in
practice were cohabiting led to a higher reproduction ratio than that
observed for a population with the highest formally recorded share of
households with >2 children. When antivirals sufficient to protect 10
percent of the population were administered to schoolchildren, a
preliminary effect on the reproduction ratio was observed. This effect
was eliminated when the household structure was adjusted for
cohabiting single parents. Nations have been encouraged to develop
estimates of morbidity and mortality during a possible pandemic
outbreak. In order to deal with ecological fallacy, the present results
suggest that this recommendation can be extended also to local communities.
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